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February 2009 and The Lost Decade

March 1st, 2009 at 06:34 am

Cash & Savings: $61,574 (5.25%)
Foreign Currency: $29,569 (0.48%)
US Brokerage: $60,138 (-9.64%)
Overseas Brokerage: $22,592 (-11.60%)
401(k): $25,042 (-1.92%)
IRA: $49,459 (-9.38%)
Roth IRA: $12,880 (-7.65%)
Total Assets: $261,254 (-4.68%)

Recently people start to talk about the "lost decade" as Dow and other major indexes retreated to level not seen (inflation adjusted) since 97 or 96 when Greenspan made his famous "irrational excuberence" speech.

I also read today that a Japanese academic who is known for predicting future trends claiming that the US is making the same mistake as the Japanese did about 20 years ago, which led Japan into not just a lost decade but a lost 15 years. He thinks the US will experience the same prolonged flat economical growth in the next 10 to 20 years.

I can't predict the future but what I do know is that even with the lost 15 years at Japane the country remains as the world's second largest economy the whole time and Germany never came close to capturing that spot. Japanese people are still relatively weathly compare to most countries and continue to live in a safe socity with quality public service.

So let's say if what the Japanese scholar said is correct then the question becomes - can people in the US maintain a similar life style after 15 years of stallmate?

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »

4 Responses to “February 2009 and The Lost Decade”

  1. whitestripe Says:
    March 1st, 2009 at 08:28 am 1235896128
    1235896128

    maybe another way to look at it is, maybe it's what's needed to bring people back to level ground? maybe a good knock off the ladder is what kept the japanese strong.

  2. PauletteGoddard Says:
    March 1st, 2009 at 05:51 pm 1235929896
    1235929896

    I don't think so. I saw many Japanese on bicycles, and scooters, using gas-cartridge space heaters instead of electricity, and programming their hot water needs instead of having them on demand. Mind you, the Japanese have a completely awesome railway system which eliminates many people's needs for personal fossil-fuel transportation.

  3. Jerry Says:
    August 28th, 2009 at 04:25 pm 1251476746
    1251476746

    The cultures are different, so it doesn't lead to a complete apples-to-apples comparison, but it is an interesting thought. I do think that the American economy is in big trouble over the long-term due to unsustainable health insurance costs, consumer debt, and deficit spending. Maybe we do need to take some lessons (both good and bad) from the Japanese experience?
    Jerry

  4. Easy Cloud Says:
    November 21st, 2018 at 08:26 pm 1542832014
    1542832014

    Hi @academic paper, thanks for your comment. Other than luck, I would attribute my results as being a very frugal person. I never have a budget because I always spend below my means and never purchase anything that I don't need. By documenting every single expense over 3 decades I have a very good sense of how much I should/can spend on what.

    Of course savings can only give you so much as the only way to outgrow inflation is by investing, which is a lot harder than saving.

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